Five-Layer Framework · Vedic Mundane Astrology · Operation Sindoor · India-UK FTA · Fundamentals · Technical Analysis
| # | Risk | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | India-Pakistan re-escalation | VIX spike; defence surge further; tourism/aviation hard-hit | High |
| 2 | Crude spike toward $100+ | Hormuz risk; OMC losses; INR weakness; CAD widening | Med-High |
| 3 | US Fed delayed rate cuts | DXY elevated; FII outflow pressure from EMs | Medium |
| 4 | China dumping chemicals/steel | Margin compression; India may impose safeguard duties | Medium |
| 5 | Monsoon below normal | Food inflation; rural demand; FMCG; agri-NBFCs | Low-Med |
| Sector | Governing Planet | 1–3M | 3–12M | 1–3Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defence & Aerospace | Mars (lord) + Saturn | Bull | Strong Bull | Secular Bull |
| Banking & NBFC | Jupiter (exalting Jun 2) | Building | Strong Bull ★ | Bull |
| FMCG (Rural) | Moon + Jupiter | Neutral | Strong Bull | Bull |
| Renewables | Saturn + Sun | Bull | Bull | Secular Bull |
| Gold / Jewellery | Jupiter + Venus | Bull | Strong Bull | Bull |
| IT Exports | Mercury (transit) | Headwind | Neutral | Bull (AI) |
| OMCs / Oil importers | 12th H malefic | Bear | Bear | Watch |
| Company | Post-Sindoor (8 sessions) | 1Y Return | 2026 YTD | Key Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cochin Shipyard | +40% | High | — | Naval shipbuilding orders |
| BDL | +27% | — | — | INVAR missiles ₹2,096 Cr |
| Paras Defence | +22% | — | — | Space imaging, optics |
| BEL | +20% | — | — | Radars + HAMMER weapons |
| HAL | +16% | — | — | 97 Tejas Mk-1A ₹62,000 Cr |
| MTAR Technologies | — | +245% | +103% | Bloom AI fuel cells + Defence |
| Mazagon Dock | +19% | — | — | ₹90,000 Cr submarine (Germany) |
| Sector | Benefit | Key Companies | Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Textiles & Leather | Zero duty; 30-40% cost advantage | Welspun, KPR Mill, Page Industries | +25-40% |
| Gems & Jewellery | Zero duty; immediate UK access | Titan, PC Jewellers, Kalyan | +20-30% |
| Organic Chemicals | 30-40% projected rise | Guj Fluoro, Navin Fluorine | +30-40% |
| Pharma Generics | Data exclusivity rejected; protected | Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy's, Cipla | +10-20% |
| IT Services | Ambitious service commitment | TCS, Infosys, Wipro | +5-10% |
| Criterion | Threshold | Best sectors |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (YoY) | ≥ 15% | Defence, Renewables, Railways, Pharma |
| EBITDA margin trend | Expanding ≥ 50 bps YoY | Capital Goods, Banking, FMCG |
| PAT growth (YoY) | ≥ 20% | Defence OEMs, NBFC, Hospitals, MTAR |
| Debt / Equity ratio | ≤ 1.0x (prefer ≤ 0.5x) | Asset-light defence electronics |
| ROE | ≥ 15% LTM | Private banks, NBFCs, Data Patterns |
| ROCE | ≥ 12% | Engineering, Railway equipment, EPC |
| Order book / Revenue | ≥ 2x (capex sectors) | HAL, BEL, L&T, RVNL, MDL ≥ 2.5x |
| Promoter holding | ≥ 40% (stable/rising) | Small-cap defence = founder-led |
| CFO / PAT quality | CFO/PAT ≥ 80% | Avoid poor cash conversion EPC |
| Margin of safety | ≥ 15% (medium); ≥ 25% (long) | DCF + EV/EBITDA dual method |
| Indicator | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Elliott Wave | Major Wave 2 completed @22,182; Wave 3 beginning | Bullish |
| Weekly Trend | Above 200-week MA; bounced from 50-week MA | Bullish |
| RSI (14, Weekly) | ~52 — neutral, not overbought, room to run | Bullish |
| Support Zone | 22,000–22,500 (Wave 2 bottom) | Strong |
| Resistance | 24,800–25,200 (prior distribution) | Watch |
| 12M Target | 25,500–27,000 (Wave 3 projection) | Target |
| India VIX | Declining post US-Iran ceasefire | Constructive |
| FII Flow (4 wks) | Net positive; EU/US going overweight India | Accumulation |
| Frequency | Action |
|---|---|
| Weekly | Adjust stop-losses at Target 1. Check India VIX. Monitor India-Pakistan situation. |
| Monthly | Full news scan. FII flows. RBI policy. Any thesis change? |
| Quarterly | Results review — did catalysts materialise? Revise conviction. |
| June 2, 2026 | ACTION: Jupiter enters Cancer. Deploy Banking/NBFC/FMCG/Gold. Begin MFI monitoring. |
| Semi-annual | Full astrological re-assessment. Ingress calendar update. Eclipse calendar. |
| Annual | Complete 5-layer refresh. Rebalance entire portfolio. |